Donald Trump thinks maybe we can do something to end the war in Ukraine. It's a classic, vague Trumpian statement, but it dropped like a bomb at the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, France. Standing next to French President Emmanuel Macron, Trump told reporters he had back-to-back phone calls with both Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin. His takeaway? Both leaders are suddenly open to talking.
If you're feeling a bit skeptical, you should be. We've heard big promises about ending this conflict before, and yet the war has dragged on for over four years, outlasting the duration of the First World War. But something is shifting in the geopolitical wind right now. Trump is arriving in France riding high on a fresh preliminary peace deal with Iran, and he's eager to lock in a second major foreign policy win. The real question isn't whether Trump wants to make a deal, it's what that deal actually looks like and whether Ukraine or Russia will ever agree to it. You might also find this connected article insightful: The Anatomy of Peace Agreements: A Brutal Breakdown of the US Iran Memorandum.
The Birthday Calls And The G7 Stage
The timing here wasn't accidental. The diplomatic flurry started with a round of phone calls on June 14, which doubled as Trump's 80th birthday. According to Kremlin foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov, Trump spent 55 minutes on the phone with Putin in a conversation described as frank and friendly. Almost simultaneously, Zelenskyy reached out to congratulate the U.S. president, using the opportunity to pitch what he called good ideas to bring peace closer.
Look at how the two sides are spinning this. Zelenskyy claimed Trump agreed that the entire conflict started with the 2014 seizure of Crimea and that strong leadership back then would have prevented the war entirely. Meanwhile, the Kremlin focuses heavily on Trump's willingness to work with European partners and Kyiv at the G7 to stop the hostilities. As extensively documented in latest coverage by Associated Press, the effects are notable.
It's a delicate dance. Trump needs to show his European allies that he's not just going to carve up Ukraine behind their backs, which was the massive fear during his brief, failed Alaska summit with Putin in August 2025. By signaling that U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are preparing for another trip to Russia, Trump is trying to prove his team has a workable roadmap.
What Most People Get Wrong About Trump's Leverage
You often hear that Trump can just snap his fingers, cut off military aid, and force Ukraine to the table. That's a naive view of how this war works in 2026.
The battlefield isn't static. Ukrainian forces have recently intensified strikes on Russian strategic targets, shifting some momentum back in their favor. Zelenskyy views this as a window of opportunity to negotiate from a position of strength, not surrender. On the flip side, Putin explicitly told Trump that these strikes won't change the broader reality on the ground, meaning Moscow isn't ready to pack up and leave just because drone strikes are hitting Russian soil.
Then there's the internal pressure inside Russia. Latest intelligence data reveals that Putin's approval ratings and the popularity of his ruling party are dropping noticeably. He's feeling the squeeze of a prolonged war, even if his public rhetoric remains completely unyielding. Trump's real leverage isn't just withholding weapons from Kyiv; it's playing on Putin's fear of long-term domestic instability while keeping European economic sanctions firmly on the table.
The Secretive G7 Agenda And Next Steps
Don't expect a formal peace treaty to be signed on a napkin in Evian this week. These things take agonizingly slow work, and the public posturing is often completely different from the private text.
Right now, European leaders and Ukraine are trying to prevent Trump from falling into a trap where Russia uses a ceasefire just to regroup. Macron and other European heads of state are pushing for even tighter economic restrictions, specifically aiming at legislative changes to detain and confiscate oil from tankers funding the Russian war machine.
If you want to track whether this is real momentum or just typical summit theater, keep your eyes on these specific developments over the next few days:
- Watch the bilateral meetings between Trump and Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the G7 to see if they issue a joint statement on territorial integrity.
- Track the travel schedules of Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff to see how quickly they land in Moscow following the summit.
- Monitor whether the G7 nations announce new, aggressive enforcement mechanisms against Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers, which will show if the West is maintaining its economic pressure.
The rhetoric of "doing something" sounds hopeful, but the details of what gets traded away on the negotiation table will dictate whether this ends in a lasting peace or a temporary pause before the next explosion.
