The dust has settled on the biggest stock market launch in history, and Wall Street is taking a victory lap. SpaceX hit the NASDAQ under the ticker SPCX at $135 a share, instantly obliterating Saudi Aramco’s old 2019 fundraising record. Within days, the valuation rocketed past $2 trillion. Now, the company has officially confirmed that its underwriters fully exercised their greenshoe option, pushing the total capital raised past $85 billion.
Retail investors are ecstatic. They see Starlink adding millions of customers and think buying SPCX right now is a one-way ticket to wealth. Also making waves in related news: The Anatomy of Custom Beverage Expansion Economics and Marginal Fatality of the Single-Unit Drive-Thru.
They are missing the bigger picture.
When a stock debuts with this much fanfare, the secondary market becomes an absolute minefield, specifically in the options chain. If you are planning to jump into SpaceX options trading or trying to figure out what happens next now that the greenshoe safety net is gone, you need to look at the cold, hard mechanics of the market. The retail hype is hiding some ugly structural realities. Further details on this are explored by Harvard Business Review.
[Image of SpaceX rocket launch]
The Greenshoe Cushion is Gone and Volatility is Coming
Let's look at what actually happened with the greenshoe option because it tells you everything you need to know about where the stock price goes next.
A greenshoe, or over-allotment option, is essentially a stabilization tool. Morgan Stanley, acting as the stabilization agent, had the right to sell 15% more shares than originally planned. Because demand was ravenous, they shorted those extra 83 million shares into the market at the $135 IPO price. On Monday, June 15, SpaceX announced the banks fully exercised the option to cover that short position, securing an extra $11.2 billion for Elon Musk’s firm.
Here is the problem most retail traders do not grasp. The greenshoe exists to protect the stock from crashing in its first 30 days. If the price had dropped below $135, Morgan Stanley would have bought shares in the open market to support the stock. Because the stock surged past $135, they just bought the new shares straight from SpaceX.
Now that the greenshoe is fully exercised, that institutional buying floor is completely gone.
Without the underwriting banks actively managing the price action to ensure an orderly debut, SPCX is entirely at the mercy of open-market forces. For a company trading at a staggering 73x price-to-sales multiple, that is incredibly dangerous. The stabilization wheels are off.
The Options Trap Implied Volatility is Eating Your Premium
If you are looking at the newly opened SpaceX options chain and thinking about buying call options to ride the momentum, you are likely walking into an implied volatility (IV) crush.
When a historic IPO debuts, market makers have no historical data to price option premiums accurately. To protect themselves, they jack up the implied volatility to extreme levels. When you buy a call option with an sky-high IV, you are paying a massive premium.
Look at what happens when the initial trading mania slows down. The stock price can stay completely flat, or even rise slightly, but if the market calms down, IV drops. This is called an IV crush. Your call options will rapidly lose value even if you got the direction of the stock right.
I have seen this happen repeatedly with hyped listings. Traders buy out-of-the-money calls, the stock moves in their favor by a few bucks, but the option value plummets because the volatility premium evaporated. If you want to trade SpaceX options, buying straight calls right now is basically gambling against the house when the house has a massive edge.
Starlink Profits vs Starship Burn Rate
To understand where the stock will trade next, you have to look past the hype and look at the actual business divisions. SpaceX is essentially two completely different companies wrapped in one ticker.
- Starlink: The cash cow. With over 10 million global subscribers, this satellite internet business is generating billions in predictable, high-margin recurring revenue. It is an operating profit machine.
- Starship and Exploration: The cash incinerator. Developing the massive Starship rocket architecture and integrating systems with xAI costs an astronomical amount of money.
In 2025, SpaceX lost nearly $5 billion overall, despite Starlink bringing in $4.4 billion in operating profit. That massive deficit is due to capital expenditure. Elon Musk isn't trying to run a boring, steady telecom company. He is trying to build interplanetary infrastructure.
Wall Street bulls have price targets pushing $200, arguing that Starship will completely dominate the global launch market and satellite deployment. Bears are pointing at the $5 billion loss and shouting that a correction down to $75 is inevitable once the initial euphoria fades.
How to Actually Play SpaceX Right Now
Stop looking at the daily chart and hoping for a continuous vertical line. If you want to navigate the post-IPO landscape safely, you need a thesis rooted in reality, not FOMO.
If you are holding shares you managed to snag through a retail allocation on platforms like Fidelity or SoFi, pay attention to the flipping rules. If you sell within the first 15 days, brokers will lock you out of future public offerings for months. Hold your ground if you are a long-term believer.
If you are looking to deploy new capital, do not chase the stock at a $2+ trillion valuation. Wait for the initial 30-day post-IPO window to clear. Let the market find its actual equilibrium without the artificial influence of investment bank stabilization.
For the options market, avoid buying naked calls or puts. The premiums are too inflated. Instead, look into defined-risk vertical spreads or waited strategies that allow you to mitigate the impact of implied volatility crush. Selling premium via credit spreads when IV spikes might be a smarter move than buying into the hype, provided you understand the risks.
The company is a generational business, but a great company can be a terrible stock if you buy it at the absolute peak of institutional hype. Let the market cool down before you back the truck up.
